Monday, November 5, 2007

Silver's Plan to Reach Parity with Gold in 5 years

By now many of us would have expected Silver to have ridden along with gold to an equivalent point in it's historic cycle, such as the $800 spike in Gold taking silver to around $40 in the 1980 Hunt brother's rush. Unfortunately, we are no where near that level and not threatening it anytime soon?

Why?
Supply and demand, and heavy shorting are the culprits. When those limits are cleared, silver will soar faster then gold, and more forcefully from a volume standpoint. We are only going to see that when there is a pervasive acknowledgement that Silver is more rare than gold. When that happens, we might even look for parity, making anyone with a few silver bars and instant millionaire, in almost any currency.

Take a 500 oz grub steak of silver at current prices, you have a mere $7000 stashed away. Enough for a months rent in Manhattans less tony areas. But if we went to parity between gold and silver, then that same 500 ounces would give us enough to buy a third of the condo, or more as the real estate market sinks. With gold at $1500 per ounce, probably a 2009 occurrence, we will be on our way to a millionaire in uninflated dollars. Silver wealth building abilities will be once in a lifetime for those in now or earlier.

Dreaming is easy. Profitably calling trends is tough. This one will only come to pass when we see advertisements and general acknowledgement of the value of Silver.
Militarily, Silver might even be classified as a strategic commodity, then all bets are off. It probably already is classified, but no policies are enforcing it and forcing the market higher. Once we see some more shortness in the supply end, where first 1000 oz. bars get scarce, then down the line to 100 oz, and finally coins - probably a 2008 or 2009 phenomenon, then we will be close to awareness of the rarity of silver.

Awareness comes long before the metal will catch up with the reality pricewise. With a penetration of the old highs at $50, when there is still a deficit, perhaps because of nationalized mines, more technologies in the solar arena or militarily, or bioscience needs, then we will see the dramatic launch just when people are think we are in a commodity bubble, Silver will soar in all currencies.

For those of us with many thousands of ounces, we will enjoy a wealth kicker we could not of even dreamed of . Hopefully, dear reader, you believe some of what you read and invest accordingly.

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