Predicted yesterday here, happened today. There was a major downdraft of both gold and silver, just anticipated. The next updraft is also predicted. The timing is less exact but not far off.
One concern is the overall liquidity driven nature of the up and downturn of the metals along with the stock markets. Not what we want, but works for the upside. Gold, silver and the related stocks must decouple from the overall stock market, not travel in the same wagon.
Gold and silver are fundamentally competitors to the stock market. In the zero sum game with metals, there will be a pull of the funds from the stock markets to the metals complex and the related equities. Unfortunately, most of that has yet to occur.
My expectation is that gold will have to run past $800 and the dollar will have to blow through 70 before people notice. Not sure, but a major spanking will have to occur.
Then gold and silver will be the story. We are not far off. Early next year with an attack on Iran. There are almost no more horrific financial stories out there to shake the dollar tree, they have already happened. The next leg down will be geopolitical and it will probably be Iran related.
Be in the metals before then or be prepared to learn how to beg.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
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