Thursday, January 31, 2008

Dealing with the Current Market and Likely Trends - Down!

My recommendation for Permanent portolio cranked out about 16% last year while the S&P500 flopped in at 6%. Both ECA and EFR are energy plays and will likely enter their uptrend soon. Meanwhile they should be paying a nice dividend, though I did not check. The dividends are the real story. Reinvested, big dividends will make you rich fast, even better than cap gains. The Permanent Portfolio is a safety fund. It rarely leads the pack and never finishes at the bottom. It survives all environments, but can lag the stock market for years on end.

Sell one investment when you have a better place for your funds depending on what you want - growth, safety, balance, etc. This is a trading environment because of the volatility. Buy and holder's will get creamed. Trading requires that I watch and move in and out of investments, avoiding if possible the 25% plus haircuts that are heading toward many portfolios. Unfortunately, with my work load, I can only work that much on my own and the family's portfolio, with each portfolio invested very differently because of varying goals.
Potentially good returns will come from the companies I recommended last time: GE, Schlumberge, Halliburton, J&J, etc. These are not going to be blow-out successes but will reward you steadily and SURVIVE the storm we are heading towards. You can buy and hold them. For more excitement and much higher returns, Uranium mining shares and precious metal shares, will have spectacular gains - 10X in 2 years is not uncommon - along with very challenging research and timing requirements to make the real money. Energy trusts are still good - Enerplus, etc.

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