Thursday, November 29, 2007

The Options Day Smash Comes Through - Again

These predictable trends are things of beauty. The options expire = the price gets smashed. Gold down below $800, silver with one nostril above the $14.00 line and holding.

When this contract driven train wreck is dragged away next week, I think the fire works will begin to the upside in a large way.

Larry, my local trusted coin dealer, could barely spare 5 minutes to talk with me because he so busy filling orders for physical gold and silver. Eagles and maple leafs of all metals are hard to come by - extremely hard. With the U.S. Mint essentially out of the PM business for the moment, those prices are only headed North.

Terminal stupidity and dishonesty have so gripped the government and the populace, that only the few who are grabbing the last remains of gold and silver have much hope of escaping with much of anything. The rest will be scrapping buy on whatever the government or gangs leave for them - and that won't be much.

The next President, if it is anyone but Dr. Ron Paul, will finalize the demolition of These United States. Bill of Rights, soveriegnty, financial independence, will all be done away with under Fuhrer Hitllary or any of the other crooks. A grim time indeed.

Have to pack for my trip. More later....Back up the truck and get another truck and back it up too!

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

The Markets Agreed with My Predictions on Gold And Silver

They both took a heavy blow, just in time for Comex options expiration. Such a beautiful thing to witness the manipulation as it weakens more and more.

Though the crooks have been able to lighten up a bit from their outsized short position, they are not even close to being in the clear. That would require heading to the $12.80 level or there abouts in Silver and probably $728 in Gold. I don't see that happening. What I do see is a rocket rise into the new year.

That's what I want, so perhaps my vision is clouded.

Off to my farm for a quick check in and tool drop off before I head to a conference in Las Vegas.

Till the next prediction...

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Breather Time While the Markets Implode

Just a few moments ago, a smartly dressed, confident sounding woman with last name of Bennett running a fund by that name sounded almost exactly like yours truly on CNBC.

The Yen carry trade is the thing to watch.
Commodities are the place to be - along with fixed income (this part I disagree with).
The U.S. is imploding from every angle, and gaining speed.

Both Gold and Silver are tucking tails in and running this morning - down. Strange considering the upside signal from the futures, but in a market with declining liquidity, perhaps not so strange.

With the Yen carry trade unwinding with the rise in the Yen's relative value, along with the Europeans pounding the table on the Yuan revaluation, we have all the makings of a dollar route. The stock market may just take the bait and route along side the dollar as everybody loves to kick a market or a nation when it is down.

While I never like to see gold and silver head south, I do like a bargain!
There are bargains a'plenty in the junior mining stocks and they will seemingly become more inexpensive as they follow the tide to lower lows. Rough business that mining world is. The only time these guys - and most of them are guys - get to clean up is when they are begging Wall Street to recognize they exist, and then they are invited to the toniest clubs because the Streeter's never quite want those around who are doing real work. Mining is as real as work gets.

So we will patiently wait while the market recorrects - even those sectors where the correction lies to the upside, not the downside - taking everything lower. Possibly in a month or two, we can sweep in a grab handful of silver, gold, and the stocks that produce them.

Meanwhile, get yourself ready for the economic earthquake of all time.
With Citi begging worldwide for some stay-afloat funding and getting it from Abu Dhabi, this signals the end of the U.S. financial clout post haste.
Hopefully we will be cleansed of our sinners, leaving only saints. But that's not the way to bet...
Gold and silver care less who sins or claims to be a saint. They are 100% guaranteed either way. Kinda makes you sleep better, yes?

Saturday, November 24, 2007

What Thin Trading Days Tell Us About Silver and Gold

First - I hope a Happy Holiday celebration was had by all. You might want to check out the real story of Thanksgiving on www.dailypaul.com It's a lesson in the power of real capitalism for putting food on the table versus the starvation caused by socialism back in the 1620's.

That they want to rocket higher!

The crooks are home getting even fatter, and the real market plays out at least a bit.

Today, gold launched around $20 and silver stepped up around $0.25. These numbers represent a 2.37% and 1.65% increases respectively. Gold outscaling silver now means that big money was moving the market, money from foreigners possibly, or money that was seeking safety more than appreciation as silver holds the fireworks excitement on the upside, but gold is the bedrock of the precious metals market because of it monetary role. Silver has a monetary role to play, and that will later, if it comes at all.

Opposite movements that we see in gold and silver also play out often in the main stock market indices - for more or less the same reason.

Stocks head down when the Plunge Protection Team takes a break. Sometimes aggressively down.

The message I get is that trends will pull the various markets dictated from the wise ones focused on their portfolios during the slow trading days.
During the rush days, with huge trading volume, the masses are more involved as are the big banks and the criminal manipulators from the government or their henchmen.

Ways to trade this:
Catch a quick price rise on the slow days in the metal market.
Catch a quick price drop for your short sales on the major stock markets.

Richard Russell, the 80 year old analyst who has seen it all and more importantly - foreseen it all - says that he has never witnessed a more disjointed stock market.
Both the Dow transports and industrials registered Dow Theory bear signals, but the S&P 500 and Wilshire have not confirmed this.
Manipulation does not even explain it. A sick financial patient - the U.S. - explains it.

Make the most of your resources and invest in - hard metal resources.

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Gold and Silver Stocks or Just the Metal?

The answer depends on whether or not you want to make money fast and lose it fast, or make it slowly, but have almost no overall loses. Gold and silver stocks will go up and down fast. The metals rise and fall, but the cost of selling them is so prohibitive, that your best bet is simply to buy and hold through all the ups and downs.

Then when the metals hit your price or you decide you have a better place to rest your wealth, then sell off part of your holdings. Since in my opinion both gold and silver have numbers like $5000 and $200 ahead in the not to distant future, I sell the stocks with the market trends and bank on the metals to keep my coffers full.

The play looks like this.

Convert your FRN's - the name of the paper script coming out of the communist manifesto bank known widely as the Federal Reserve - into gold and silver.
25% of your desired amount of your wealth into gold, and 75% into silver.
Watch the gold to silver ratio as it bounces from as high as 60 (gold:silver), down to as low as 16 or even lower. Now the ratio stands just over 55, so silver has MUCH more upside than gold....

until gold takes over again for a variety of reasons.

Silver may lurch towards $20+ in the next 2-3 months, probably taking the ratio to around 48-50. That would put gold comfortably near $1000.00 Possibly gold will not move as much, but silver is poised.

Both gold and silver will rise beyond levels that we can imagine now, all the while the dollar and the health of the U.S., from political to economic to social measurements will all decline rapidly. Wealth amidst sorrow may be one way to look at it. Prices will rise for everything, but the precious metals will keep our heads well above water, perhaps even increasing our wealth by life changing amounts.

Then silver will drop from popularity and the ratio will spike in golds favor. This is the time to exchange your silver for gold. Among the many reasons to do this - portability of gold as you might want to get out of the land of totalitarian government, massive crime, starvation, crushing taxes, travel restrictions, and gangs. Like Bond with his 50 gold sovereigns, we all may need to parachute into a safer, freer land. Silver will be too heavy, and gold will be more easily converted, even though by then it will be so precious that you might be able to buy a very respectable home with only 20 of your soveriegns and use the other ones to support your staff of 19 year old wives!


Both gold and silver will be your providers, protectors, escorts, tickets to freedom, and insurance against the nearing fiat currency collapse. Knowing when to lean on silver and when to switch to golds monetary shoulders could separate those that make it through and those that thrive on the way to owning far more after the collapse than before.


Pick your security guards carefully..and they will serve faithfully.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Get Your Guard Up!

With the Liberty Dollar Nazi like assault, the dollar collapse promoted as good for us, drought in much of the country and key areas in the world - not having anything to do with the global warming dictatorship, but a consequence of the coming ice age - 1. Food

2. Water

3. Means of self defense - especially as the Supreme Court will rule, and possibly dismiss, on the second amendment - the right to keep firearms.

4. Transportation and fuel.

5. Health support.

6. Communication and transactional plans.

7. Friends and family who are coordinated.

8. Resources outside the grasp of the U.S. criminal authorities.

9. Gold

10. Silver

Precious metals or jewelry given as bribes by the Jews escaping the Nazi guards worked then and they may well work again as the dollar loses all value and the ignoramus population gives away all liberties.

Food shortages are popping up everywhere and will get worse. Farmland in the Southeast has become dry and barren with one of the deepest droughts ever. Perhaps it is the U.S. government HAARP program, or chemtrails, or simply a cycle. No matter the cause, the effect has crushed food stocks and economic activity in a formerly robust section of the U.S. Agri-exports will be down and income with it.

The dollar has more reasons to collapse than to stand up and the Fed, with cheering by all the political crooks, is kicking the crutches out from the flailing currency.
Already our foreign task masters have spoken. They are issuing a verdict of death.

The dollar will be destroyed and our standard of living with it. No quick recovery. No rescue. No soft landing. More like a skeleton being crushed.

Gold and silver may go supernova, but who cares when the penalty for being intelligent and saving yourself is being tasered, shot, jailed, fined and accused of being an economic terrorist. It sounds surreal. The proof lies fresh in history books under FDR when he jailed those with gold.

The government has no brakes being put on it by the people or laws, or adherence to the constitution. Arms may have an impact but no one wants the conflict, because all parties lose, most of all the ideal of the U.S.

Meanwhile, back on the commodities front, as predicted, there has been a seesawing of prices as we cruise into options expiration on 11/27. Once past that time I think we will begin to see a rocket launch of the metals with the real flames trailing silver.
Silver has held up especially well with quick 43 cent bounces back from plunges.

5 cent moves used to impressive. Now we are only impressed once we see over 50 cents, and soon we will have $1.00 up days. Yes, soon to follow will be a $1.00 down day, but those will be gifts as we begin to balance the currency torrent, with the drip of metal supply.

Silver - get it while you can.
Gold - get some of it while you can afford it.

Monday, November 19, 2007

Where There are Salesmen, There Will Be Sales of Silver and Gold

When I come to method of making an accurate tally of how many gold and silver dealers there are, that will be the best single indicator of the rise in gold and silver. Calls or searches for gold and silver are a close proxy, but not as accurate as knowing how many people are pushing the investments.

The federal government has become a full fledge terror force by attacking the Liberty Services group that provides the Liberty Dollar and stealing everything. We have gone from words to weapons in this battle for financial and speech freedom.

All the more reason to own gold and silver.

Saturday, November 17, 2007

Ho Hum until Options Expire

Nov. 27 or so, i will have more to comment about. Until then, all we have is an exchange market, where the tug from both sides long and short does not move the market much, until the shorts yank especially hard and their is a brief downward flush of their underwater contracts. Then the market will resume with a rush, their upward trend.

The end of the year and the first quarter should be profitable and thrilling.

Gold and silver blasting off soon..

Thursday, November 15, 2007

TIC data and the Road Runner Off a Cliff

Road Runner always suspended in mid-air ever time he went off a cliff ..BEEP BEEP!
Then he plunged..Yeeeeeoooooooo! He always made it to the next scene, but the dollar may not.

The Treasury International Capital flow - TIC data - are shouting that we have lost dollar support. It's flat lined from $64 billion to -$160 billion. Game over.
Gold and silver are going to be life boats with one major proviso.

The U.S. government goon squad will go after anyone remotely challenging the dollar hegemony as amply demonstrated today with the raiding of the well known Liberty Dollar offices and safe.

No one and nothing is safe from the government. They may just taser you which of course will not kill you, unless you happen to be killed by it like so many have, then ooops. We are sorry. Payed administrative leave for the 19 thug officers that pounded you took your money and your life, then no findings of wrong doing. Story has become old hat already. The police and the government are the greatest danger to U.S. citizens. Period.

Gold and silver stand in the way of tyranny, always have. The government and the banks want to have their way with you and your money, so gold and silver have to squashed, along with those who purvey it and own it.

This is getting ugly.

All we want is constitutional government, money, and to be left alone. Ron Paul supporters are now becoming terrorists according to the news operatives. They are actually calling anyone who supports Ron Paul a threat?!!! That of course means anyone calling for honest money is a threat.

Get ready or get out. The U.S. is screwed. Hate to be the one to tell you, but the facts are shouting too loudly, and the screams from dead taser victims are drowing out the psyop from the TV.

Loved the little freedom we had while it lasted..oh well.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Volatility Shows Manipulation in Gold and Silver

Debates rage around the net and in conferences that focus on investments and government policy as to whether or not the precious metals markets - specifically gold and silver futures and options traded on the Comex - are manipulated by a few deep pocketed and politically connected banks or agents. Without having to dig too much, the answer is boldly apparent.

Extreme volatility almost defines that manipulation exists in silver and gold. Not necessarily an indicator in stocks or bonds where the company supporting the security could have significant news that impacts the price either up or down, volatility in gold and silver ipso facto shows manipulation exercised by a few parties acting together agains the masses.

Gold and silver production neither jumps nor decreases dramatically day to day. Neither does demand for gold and silver jump dramatically day to day. While some days have more or less buying or selling when there is no manipulative force at play, the changes are moderate and trending up or down slowly in general.
Only when a central bank drops their gold inventory or a massive order comes through can the price escalate or drop dramatically. The nature of a mined commodity is that huge finds or sources are rare, demand tends to be steady, inventories are trackable, weather has minor and short term impacts, and baring the heavy weight of illegally concentrated short selling, a mined commodities price will increase with the level of fiat currency printed with a drag time, balanced by fundamentals of supply and demand.

So we could expect gold and silver to only move moderately in price over time. Instead, what we have are dramatic price swings like 5% up or down from one day to another!! Ask yourselves-

1. Are new mines being discovered that will bring demand online right away?
2. Is demand dropping off equivalently that day or is anticipated that day?
3. Did a mass of market participants randomly decide to liquidate their positions that day?

The answer to all the questions in case you are wondering...is "NO." Nothing changed fundamentally in the gold and silver market.

The heavy handed, illegal manipulation by a few deep pocketed, politically connected groups. Naming names - and this is all Ted Butler's research not mine - would be AIG or Scottia Mocatta, plus Goldman, and the other heavy hitters in the Comex.

This is all the more reason to get into this market because the manipulation always ends at some point. Then the prices rocket for the shorted commodity.

Until then, watch the volatility with disdain and know the origin of it. Pure illegality, pure manipulation, and pure corruption.

Invest with wisdom and watch the manipulation make you rich!

Monday, November 12, 2007

Washout Here for Silver and Gold

As predicted, the shorts overran the longs and a the $.75 drop in Silver was a major retracement of the up lunge. Gold has yet to fall back as far equivalently, but the prospect remains. Liquidity is the main story.

Japan's Yen supplies the hot air lifting the markets - almost any market - to the point that the shorts can load up and the Yen gets unweighted and counters the trend.

With the Yen trading at an 18 month high relative to the USD, the coffers have to move in reverse. Yen gets repatriated, other markets get sold.

When financials lead an uptick - including Citi of the financial hospice category - then this is a suckers uptrend, to be shorted with gusto. The other side of the bend is taking longs on the current downdraft in PM's and related resource stocks.

Anyone going long from here with either core silver or gold options, warrants on mining stocks, or ETF's will find themselves wealthier by a healthy measure come this time next year. Not only do I believe it, but I am following my own advice. These are precisely the moments where you discover your metal - character of strength and decision.


While everyone else runs for the supposed safety of U.S. script or that of any other government for that matter, the wise ones, the Ron Paul supporters, know that the only real safety now involves tangibles - gold and silver foremost.

I am even lightening up on my PM stocks, before I load up heavy in the next upleg.

The lesson is that liquidity is the driver, not a rush into gold and silver. We need liquidity to soft it influence, fear to reassert, and gold and silver to become NEWS.

My theory is - and I will document it soon - that the number of dealers will determine the strength of this gold and silver bull market. If enough avenues open up, then investors will march! More salesmen and women will get the message out to the younger, less informed populace and the rush will begin.

Be the one leading the rush, not the one wondering where it is going.

Friday, November 9, 2007

Separation from the Markets by Gold and Silver

While the Dow and S&P were putting Olympian swan dives, both gold and silver and their related equities held steady. Not rising, not falling much, simply assuring their holders of A RETURN of capital - whether or not appreciated.

Unlike the markets that have been treading water and finally have begun gasping and going under, gold and silver are above the water and returning 30% plus annually, depending on how you are allocated. My own stock picks have included 10 bangers and a few 10% under performers but no big money losers in the resource sector.

How could you go wrong with gold and silver now?

As Buffet has often said - and I am no fan of mr. new world order - pick the right sector and getting great results comes easily.

The right sectors have been and will be:
Energy
PM's
metals
agriculture
water
alternative energy
resource based currencies
foreign real estate


The U.S. is a short - top to bottom, inside out - unless Ron Paul takes the white house. And I do mean takes the white house because it will not be given to him.

Ride this gold and silver bull for the profits of a lifetime, founded in honesty, and fear of man-made promises from those who have shown dishonesty at their core.

Gold and silver money is the way it was always supposed to be and will be again.

Be early, be rich. Be late, be irate.

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Gold and Silver more important than Water?

Much of the Southeastern United States has been drought stricken for over 2 years. Lakes are 15 feet below normal and heading down the drain fast. Watering bans in each county and city presage the complete climax of a dry state, a dry region, and thirsty populations.

While chatting with my good friend and fellow Libertarian, Chris B., I told him I was more concerned about water supply than the dollar crashing and economic issues. Once aboard the gold and silver lifeboat, they do the rowing to safety for you. Water on the other hand, has a more cloudy solution. Either we get a torrential rain, or go dry in 45 days.

4.5 million people without water. That would be a calamity of epic proportions and it is here and in living color- all brown.

Whether it was a political issue with the states fighting the Army Core of Engineers, or poor planning is just so much idle speculation. WE ARE OUT OF LIFE GIVING WATER.

My possible solutions include:
Moving
Using dehydrators with filters
Setting up catchment systems for a living.
Hoarding a huge supply of water - as I used to do in my hot tub. 360 gallons will hold you for a while.


Now that I look at all the ways to solve the problem, I realize that gold and silver is more important than water in that they can be used to get the equipment and the labor and the engineering talent to get the system working and providing the H20.
Should you find a man dying of thirst, I am certain he would part with much of his gold and silver fortune for the water. That is so rare an event that it only makes a parable, not a strategy.

With gold and silver, you have power in reserve. You have stored time and resources that can meld into almost all the functions you might need to overcome adversity, as in this case, such as drought. Or food shortages. Or medical needs.

At all times, in all places, gold and silver function as money. Perhaps not with the government, but then a criminals behavior is not worth emulating anyway.

So gold and silver are more important than water.

That's more than important enough for me to get some more.

Short-term outlook:
I expect a pullback/consolidation before we smash higher. Could be the options expiration date on 11/27 where we see a collapse in price, but that will be short lived. All bets are off if we attack anybody, including Iran.

Super-models are leading the exit from the smoking theatre where everyone watches the great Epic Dollar Swan Dive Triple Feature. Dumb blonds - NOT!

To all - a gold and silver day.

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Commercial Signal Failure in Silver or Gold?

The vaunted commercial signal failure refers to the market functions locking up in the Crimex - known in the ill-informed circles as the Comex. The commercials are heavily short and in serious pain while attempting to force their usual sell off. Some serious money is taking the other side of the bet, with the possibility of SWF's or Sovereign Wealth Funds from oil producing or surplus producing countries like the BRIC - Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Add to that Turkey and the middle-eastern countries and all the furnaces are stoked for more upside.

While they will eventually get a breather and some downside pullbacks, the momentum is so high and the light shining on the banks so intense that they will eventually have to clear out their shorts at higher prices. A small loss is better than a big one, while all loses hurt.

Speaking of loss - I have to confess to miss timing my options trade with Silver. I was right on about the call I purchased 270 or so days ago while Silver was at $13. A $15.75 call for November seemed a long shot and was priced accordingly. I bit. I held on and saw its time value go to nothing at the beginning of this month. Silver trades in the back rooms - not electronically. So getting quotes is taking a step back in time to making a phone call to Guido and getting the bid/ask spread for the option. Stinks to high heaven. Fortunately, I have made money with my options in the past and was willing to put up with the tiny silver market shennanigans.
This time I folded my tent to early, because I could have tripled my investment as silver has tapped my target and then some. The money lost was small. The lesson learned was large.

When you have taken most of your hit already on an investment, and their is an outside chance of riding a current favorable trend into profit - as there definitely was with Silver going higher weekly - be bold and risk the entire option for the potential profit.

I was not bold, I was defensive in trying to save the last remaining value in the option.

My only money losing option trade. Well, more profitable ones will follow.

Silver at $25 next year? I think so, as Ron Paul talks about silver and gold and ads appear everywhere. Then we are cooking with gas.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

LIFT OFF FOR THE GOLD AND SILVER ROCKET! AND 10 Fallouts from All Candidates except Ron Paul

You read it here...the metals would rest, then they would launch. They did exactly that. Silver is heading for $25 an ounce so there is time before it rests. Gold will take a bigger breather. The ratio is already down to 53 from 55 and heading towards 40 while gold hits around 850 or $900. That leaves us over $20 per ounce. Sweet times indeed.

Now for some political points about what happens if anyone but Ron Paul is elected:


1. The SPP - Security Peace and Prosperity Pact will go into full force ending the sovereignty of the U.S. - including ending our constitution and bill of rights. Google it - see what Lou Dobbs of CNN has said about it.

2. The NAFTA super-highway tollway has already begun and will strangle all the links around the U.S. restricting movements with $65 tolls (Austin, TX to Dallas, TX - a 3 hour drive!), with all the tollways owned by companies in Spain, Australia, China- holding us hostage. Already being built in Austin and coming here.

3. A control grid with video cameras everywhere focused on faces and walks that can identify anyone instantly. Notice the cameras pointing at you in intersections, not at your license plates. Already in place in London, NYC, Chicago, Atlanta is finishing it now. Look up the Pentagon control grid plans or the domestic terrorism legislation controlling all media and calling for a police state control grid.

4. Socialized medicine enforced - including compulsory vaccinations, compulsory yearly inspections, and no vitamins or minerals sold without prescription. Check the Codex Alimentarian legislation (google this - unbelievable the restrictions!) and Hillary's plan - it's in black and white.

5. Destruction of the U.S. dollar and the start of the Amero - forcibly merging without approval Canada, the U.S., and Mexico into one worthless paper currency. Read what the Council on Foreign relations along with the SPP legislation and Lou Dobbs on CNN all have to say about it. Happening in broad daylight.

6. National ID act where we are required to present "papers" at check points including crossing state lines. Every communist and totalitarian government does the same thing. Lookup National ID act. See how the federal government will have to approve you for any and all jobs you apply for.

7. Destruction of the 2nd Amendment - the right to self-defense and to keep and bear arms. Your opinions may vary on this. No one can argue the facts of an unarmed populace is the first step to a complete police state - including Japan where they have a 99% conviction rate for anyone accused of a crime (accused = guilty = jail), or England where crime has soared with the complete gun ban and anyone who fights back against a burglar is arrested - including 75 year old women. Many reports of this - ixquick search for England victim punishment or crime increase.

8. Ending of Internet freedoms - multiple pieces of legislation attacking this including the domestic terrorism bills. Ixquick it and you will see.

9. Federal property tax for "Carbon and environmental rescue" for anybody with a certain size house or property value. Forgetting the bogus non-science behind the carbon tax issues, anyone who taxes your property owns it. It is a government control grab, nothing whatever to do with the environment. Even with a payed off mortgage, they take your property if you do not pay your tax.

10. All waterways - including the creek behind your house, or that pond in your golf course - go to the United Nations control. This is already in the works with the Law of the Seas treaty. Any sailing you want to do, or cruises will require you to comply with the United Nations. If you are a fan of the U.N. then you have little hope.

You can have only three opinions about these illegal acts coming our way:

Should you decide that you like the above legislation and totalitarian control already here and getting more invasive, may your slave chains weigh lightly on you.
Should you not care about the above legislation and totalitarian control already here and getting more invasive, may your slave chains weigh lightly on you.
Should you find the above legislation and totalitarian control here and planned completely unacceptable - then you must support RON PAUL with your time, your funds, your friends, and your spirit.

All the other candidates will bring all of these to pass, no matter what they may claim. Hillary, Obama, Thompson, McCain, Romney, Edwards, Guiliani, etc. will all march these totalitarian and illegal acts to your front door.

You are now fully awake. Welcome to the battle.
Let's March!

Monday, November 5, 2007

The Markets are Whispering - Can You Hear Them?

As gold rises and silver falls or treads water, the markets are whispering a telling message.
Stagflation this way comes. That tart cocktail of rising produces and reduced economic activity with recession or even depression level statistics while prices rise in many of the key areas of food, energy, travel, health care, education, insurance and even in the normally docile imported electronics, and clothing sectors.


Silver finds its way into multiple industrial goods and responds to industrial slowdowns - anticipated or real. Gold is primarily a monetary metal and will soar with inflation expectations and/or fear. Both will fall in general with a declining belief in catastrophic occurrences, or a rise in belief of business as usual.

So we are headed towards catastrophes, have lost most of our belief in business as usual, and expect higher costs with lower industrial or economic activity. Pretty much spot on with what is really happening day to day in the world.

The banks are imploding - faster the better for the health of the world and each of us.
Governments are distrusted corner to corner, their totalitarian hands have grabbed our collective throats from the marble foyers of state houses across the globe.

The metals with 5000 years of wisdom are whispering. Hoarse with age, powerful with insight. Heed their wisdom and prosper. Ignore them and perish.

Silver's Plan to Reach Parity with Gold in 5 years

By now many of us would have expected Silver to have ridden along with gold to an equivalent point in it's historic cycle, such as the $800 spike in Gold taking silver to around $40 in the 1980 Hunt brother's rush. Unfortunately, we are no where near that level and not threatening it anytime soon?

Why?
Supply and demand, and heavy shorting are the culprits. When those limits are cleared, silver will soar faster then gold, and more forcefully from a volume standpoint. We are only going to see that when there is a pervasive acknowledgement that Silver is more rare than gold. When that happens, we might even look for parity, making anyone with a few silver bars and instant millionaire, in almost any currency.

Take a 500 oz grub steak of silver at current prices, you have a mere $7000 stashed away. Enough for a months rent in Manhattans less tony areas. But if we went to parity between gold and silver, then that same 500 ounces would give us enough to buy a third of the condo, or more as the real estate market sinks. With gold at $1500 per ounce, probably a 2009 occurrence, we will be on our way to a millionaire in uninflated dollars. Silver wealth building abilities will be once in a lifetime for those in now or earlier.

Dreaming is easy. Profitably calling trends is tough. This one will only come to pass when we see advertisements and general acknowledgement of the value of Silver.
Militarily, Silver might even be classified as a strategic commodity, then all bets are off. It probably already is classified, but no policies are enforcing it and forcing the market higher. Once we see some more shortness in the supply end, where first 1000 oz. bars get scarce, then down the line to 100 oz, and finally coins - probably a 2008 or 2009 phenomenon, then we will be close to awareness of the rarity of silver.

Awareness comes long before the metal will catch up with the reality pricewise. With a penetration of the old highs at $50, when there is still a deficit, perhaps because of nationalized mines, more technologies in the solar arena or militarily, or bioscience needs, then we will see the dramatic launch just when people are think we are in a commodity bubble, Silver will soar in all currencies.

For those of us with many thousands of ounces, we will enjoy a wealth kicker we could not of even dreamed of . Hopefully, dear reader, you believe some of what you read and invest accordingly.

Thursday, November 1, 2007

Believe the Words on Gold and Silver

Predicted yesterday here, happened today. There was a major downdraft of both gold and silver, just anticipated. The next updraft is also predicted. The timing is less exact but not far off.

One concern is the overall liquidity driven nature of the up and downturn of the metals along with the stock markets. Not what we want, but works for the upside. Gold, silver and the related stocks must decouple from the overall stock market, not travel in the same wagon.

Gold and silver are fundamentally competitors to the stock market. In the zero sum game with metals, there will be a pull of the funds from the stock markets to the metals complex and the related equities. Unfortunately, most of that has yet to occur.

My expectation is that gold will have to run past $800 and the dollar will have to blow through 70 before people notice. Not sure, but a major spanking will have to occur.

Then gold and silver will be the story. We are not far off. Early next year with an attack on Iran. There are almost no more horrific financial stories out there to shake the dollar tree, they have already happened. The next leg down will be geopolitical and it will probably be Iran related.

Be in the metals before then or be prepared to learn how to beg.