Just listened to Goldseek radio with Chris Waltzek and a Puru Saxena interviewed. Puru is a worldy, wise, and successful investor. Generally I see eye to eye with him, but this time he has come out strongly against gold and silver.
Partially because he is willing and able, because of Hong Kong tax laws, to buy and sell gold and silver with the seasons.
All of us who have been in the market for a while know that you can sell after March and buy back in around August and often bank quite a gain and avoid the major loss. I have to sit through this because I am not using trading vehicles.
Saxena wants out of gold and silver for good, thinking that the ETF's will do much better. I think short term, he is probably correct. Long term, I am not so certain. The food commodity cycle will peter out earlier than the PM's which tend to lag in the commodities market. He also believes the central banks and IMF will be able to crush the PM bull market.
That has generally proven to not be the case. He might be right, but I am putting my money in the PM's for the long haul. Energy is better right now, food is better right now, but gold and silver will be better later.
Puru...this time you may be right, but in the future, I think you may regret it.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Just about to Pull the Trigger on Silver and Gold, When..
I read some fantastic analysis from the eminent Frank Barbera and decided to ride the metals lower before purchasing. Also held back somewhat on purchasing a few mining shares. Probably will dive in shortly even though the market as a whole has all the gusto of Michael Moore running a marathon - downright sickly.
Whether goes the market, initially go the PM's stocks. Sadly for the jr's, they will be swept up like dust by the majors for penny's in the pound of good earth they hold.
Speaking of criminal enterprises, the shaft given to freedom and Ron Paul is one for the hall of shame for government corruption. He was completely ignored by the corpgovmedia, and had the votes redirected from him at every opportunity.
Worst of all, the average American can't think straight enough to see that he was the only candidate that could right this country and get us back to a free U.S. versus the police and war state we have become.
Sadly, all of this is good news for the gold and silver investor as the printing presses will run non-stop.
James Turk of Goldmoney fame, commented that he does not believe the silver bull market even begins until we retouch $50! That means we could rise 10 fold from there - up to a mind blowing $500 per oz of silver. That would give us the return of the century.
Let us all hope James Turk is correct -as he usually is.
Action items for all:
Buy gold and silver on the dips.
Go digital with goldmoney, bullionvault, egold, etc.
Get some energy stocks,
If you can afford it, grab some farmland, next best thing is the rogers commodity fund.
Off to research the next great market..
Whether goes the market, initially go the PM's stocks. Sadly for the jr's, they will be swept up like dust by the majors for penny's in the pound of good earth they hold.
Speaking of criminal enterprises, the shaft given to freedom and Ron Paul is one for the hall of shame for government corruption. He was completely ignored by the corpgovmedia, and had the votes redirected from him at every opportunity.
Worst of all, the average American can't think straight enough to see that he was the only candidate that could right this country and get us back to a free U.S. versus the police and war state we have become.
Sadly, all of this is good news for the gold and silver investor as the printing presses will run non-stop.
James Turk of Goldmoney fame, commented that he does not believe the silver bull market even begins until we retouch $50! That means we could rise 10 fold from there - up to a mind blowing $500 per oz of silver. That would give us the return of the century.
Let us all hope James Turk is correct -as he usually is.
Action items for all:
Buy gold and silver on the dips.
Go digital with goldmoney, bullionvault, egold, etc.
Get some energy stocks,
If you can afford it, grab some farmland, next best thing is the rogers commodity fund.
Off to research the next great market..
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Dealing with the Current Market and Likely Trends - Down!
My recommendation for Permanent portolio cranked out about 16% last year while the S&P500 flopped in at 6%. Both ECA and EFR are energy plays and will likely enter their uptrend soon. Meanwhile they should be paying a nice dividend, though I did not check. The dividends are the real story. Reinvested, big dividends will make you rich fast, even better than cap gains. The Permanent Portfolio is a safety fund. It rarely leads the pack and never finishes at the bottom. It survives all environments, but can lag the stock market for years on end.
Sell one investment when you have a better place for your funds depending on what you want - growth, safety, balance, etc. This is a trading environment because of the volatility. Buy and holder's will get creamed. Trading requires that I watch and move in and out of investments, avoiding if possible the 25% plus haircuts that are heading toward many portfolios. Unfortunately, with my work load, I can only work that much on my own and the family's portfolio, with each portfolio invested very differently because of varying goals.
Potentially good returns will come from the companies I recommended last time: GE, Schlumberge, Halliburton, J&J, etc. These are not going to be blow-out successes but will reward you steadily and SURVIVE the storm we are heading towards. You can buy and hold them. For more excitement and much higher returns, Uranium mining shares and precious metal shares, will have spectacular gains - 10X in 2 years is not uncommon - along with very challenging research and timing requirements to make the real money. Energy trusts are still good - Enerplus, etc.
Sell one investment when you have a better place for your funds depending on what you want - growth, safety, balance, etc. This is a trading environment because of the volatility. Buy and holder's will get creamed. Trading requires that I watch and move in and out of investments, avoiding if possible the 25% plus haircuts that are heading toward many portfolios. Unfortunately, with my work load, I can only work that much on my own and the family's portfolio, with each portfolio invested very differently because of varying goals.
Potentially good returns will come from the companies I recommended last time: GE, Schlumberge, Halliburton, J&J, etc. These are not going to be blow-out successes but will reward you steadily and SURVIVE the storm we are heading towards. You can buy and hold them. For more excitement and much higher returns, Uranium mining shares and precious metal shares, will have spectacular gains - 10X in 2 years is not uncommon - along with very challenging research and timing requirements to make the real money. Energy trusts are still good - Enerplus, etc.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
What is more valuable than Gold and Silver?
Arable, farmable, land. Weather patterns - the coming ice age NOT the global warming scam - will freeze many farming regions north of 40 Lat and make others unsuitable because of precipitation. The hunt is on for good farmland as inexpensive as possible.
I purchased in Tennessee just as the drought was entering it's second year. Now two years on and we are running out of water in our streams and lakes, eventually the rives will run dry. Gone will be the farms and the produce from them.
It may be H.A.A.R.P. from the evil minds of the U.S. black opts government or it may be simply a weather shift, but in either case it spells a desperate need for more farmland and farmers.
Where to go? In my opinion, the area to focus on is Brazil. While other regions may also work, Brazil has the best chance of offering a reasonable chunk of land with all that a farmer needs - water, sun, soil, and inexpensive labor, and lax regulations. Not for abusing the soil, but handling business.
Look into it. That is the next best thing to Silver. Check out Ted Butler's interview with Investment Rarities.
I purchased in Tennessee just as the drought was entering it's second year. Now two years on and we are running out of water in our streams and lakes, eventually the rives will run dry. Gone will be the farms and the produce from them.
It may be H.A.A.R.P. from the evil minds of the U.S. black opts government or it may be simply a weather shift, but in either case it spells a desperate need for more farmland and farmers.
Where to go? In my opinion, the area to focus on is Brazil. While other regions may also work, Brazil has the best chance of offering a reasonable chunk of land with all that a farmer needs - water, sun, soil, and inexpensive labor, and lax regulations. Not for abusing the soil, but handling business.
Look into it. That is the next best thing to Silver. Check out Ted Butler's interview with Investment Rarities.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Another Ode of Advice for the Future
In my opinion, you might consider the following:
1. Buy a years supply of dried, storable food for each member of your family. By 2011, the likely-hood is you will be eating it. - Approximately $5-8 k depending on your choices.
2. Agricultural and energy ETF's will probably do well. I have not analyzed all of them (I enter the market on a more targeted basis), but they will all probably move up, though at different rates.
3. You have approximately 1 year for Daniel, 4 years for Eitan, and 7 years for Jordan until the college bills hit. Unfortunately, the odds are high for another currency replacing the USD by the time Eitan enters college. Planning becomes imprecise because the eventual translation from old to new currency (the Amero) will be arbitrarily set to the disadvantage of the populace. Buy high dividend paying stocks from large cap infrastructure type stocks: GE, Johnson and Johnson, P&G, Schlumberge, Halliburton, ADM, etc. These international corporations will pay high dividends and be able to weather the depression that hits by 2010.
4. The big money will be made in gold and silver stocks, uranium stocks, agriculture futures and stocks, and energy plays (Nat Gas, oil futures, some alternative energies). Because you probably do not want to watch these carefully and you need the withdrawals to start within a year or so, I do not recommend this explosive market segment.
5. There will be a stock market beating again. The market will then probably go up some, but the currency will be devaluing rapidly so there may be no real gains, only nominal gains.
At some point you may want to be out of the market all together.
6. The world is transitioning away from financial assets to commodities - land, minerals, energy, water, metals, agricultural commodities. This will continue for many more years, so you can stay in these investments for a while, though there will be PULL BACKS.
Hope this helps!
-Mark
1. Buy a years supply of dried, storable food for each member of your family. By 2011, the likely-hood is you will be eating it. - Approximately $5-8 k depending on your choices.
2. Agricultural and energy ETF's will probably do well. I have not analyzed all of them (I enter the market on a more targeted basis), but they will all probably move up, though at different rates.
3. You have approximately 1 year for Daniel, 4 years for Eitan, and 7 years for Jordan until the college bills hit. Unfortunately, the odds are high for another currency replacing the USD by the time Eitan enters college. Planning becomes imprecise because the eventual translation from old to new currency (the Amero) will be arbitrarily set to the disadvantage of the populace. Buy high dividend paying stocks from large cap infrastructure type stocks: GE, Johnson and Johnson, P&G, Schlumberge, Halliburton, ADM, etc. These international corporations will pay high dividends and be able to weather the depression that hits by 2010.
4. The big money will be made in gold and silver stocks, uranium stocks, agriculture futures and stocks, and energy plays (Nat Gas, oil futures, some alternative energies). Because you probably do not want to watch these carefully and you need the withdrawals to start within a year or so, I do not recommend this explosive market segment.
5. There will be a stock market beating again. The market will then probably go up some, but the currency will be devaluing rapidly so there may be no real gains, only nominal gains.
At some point you may want to be out of the market all together.
6. The world is transitioning away from financial assets to commodities - land, minerals, energy, water, metals, agricultural commodities. This will continue for many more years, so you can stay in these investments for a while, though there will be PULL BACKS.
Hope this helps!
-Mark
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Looking for a Brief Rest for the Gold and Silver Climbers
Hopefully the expiration of the Crimex futures and options contracts at the end of this month will work it manipulated magic and give us a gift of perhaps at 5%+ drop. Taking gold down to 850 and silver down to $15.60 would make for a grand entrance point before they scoot.
Up the ascent to perhaps a $1200 ledge and $20 bivouac for the respective hardy mountaineers.
The stocks still seem to be questioning the leap of the metals. I am waiting before I enter long in a few selected producing jr's or those nearing production. Also considering which uranium plays to pick-up. They are generally being given away.
Last but not least - arable land will be the most treasured for of capital in the near future. I am betting huge on it - and I recommend you do as well.
Now I have to go pick up my tractor...
Up the ascent to perhaps a $1200 ledge and $20 bivouac for the respective hardy mountaineers.
The stocks still seem to be questioning the leap of the metals. I am waiting before I enter long in a few selected producing jr's or those nearing production. Also considering which uranium plays to pick-up. They are generally being given away.
Last but not least - arable land will be the most treasured for of capital in the near future. I am betting huge on it - and I recommend you do as well.
Now I have to go pick up my tractor...
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
A Letter to a Friend about the role of Gold, Silver and Land for Surviving the Collapse
This installment includes my response to a dear friend who sent me an email debate between her brother Josh and their financial advisor Jim. All three of these people are super bright and understand the world situation to varying degrees, but better than most. Nonetheless, they wanted my opinion which differed dramatically from theirs. Please read on.
"First, cutting to the chase, my top picks for investments:
1. Energy - Nat. gas, small/mid tier Oil producers and services, Uranium plays.
2. PM's mining co's- Jr. producers that are growing reserves and will be bought out by the majors.
3. Equatorial Ag land.
4. Large Cap infrastructure companies - GE, Bechtel, Halliburton (politically and morally not appealing but a strong business nonetheless), etc.
5. Physical bullion and sovereign coins held allocated offshore if possible.
Now the discussion and philosophy behind my recommendations, along with some comments regarding Josh and Jim's line of reasoning.
1. Currency values are relative to each other these days along with gold. Rather than supply and demand driving the "value" of a fiat currency, (they are all valueless as Fiat) the difference in interest rates between countries levers one currency higher or lower than another depending of course on the underlying fundamentals of the issuing countries economy. High interest rates attract capital and raise the value of a currency eventually. Low interest rates have the opposite effect. Underlying all that is the rate of money and credit growth compared to the growth of good and services being produced, otherwise known as inflation. Sadly, the whole planet is inflating at near double digit rates - including the Euro, GBP, RNB, Yen, etc. The strongest currencies will be resource rich countries - Canada, Australia, etc.
All currencies are headed down relative to the ultimate currency - Gold. You can hop from one dropping currency to another, but eventually, gold will be the final stop. Since we have a gov't out of control, they could make gold illegal to own or trade or attempt to lock the price. Unlikely, but a consideration.
2. Foreign bonds can be a good currency play and I have enjoyed the returns for a while. One of the best is Loomis International Bond fund. I do not favor bonds and #3 explains why.
3. Even a ragingly successful investment in the stock or bond markets of the world has one critical weakness. Politicians control the worth of the currency the gains are denominated in. Zimbabwe's stock market has rocketed while the currency has depreciated even faster, leaving a net negative return. In my opinion, the considered course of action allows that the dollar may disappear within 3-5 years, leaving all investments open to any revaluation the politicos choose to assign. $1000 USD may become 1 Amero. You then have rescaled the investment into nonsense. So that leaves moving from the ether world of digital investments of paper stocks and bonds, into real valuables of gold, silver, oil, productive agricultural land, and commodities of all stripes.
Jim, the C.F.A., probably expects tomorrow to be pretty much like to day with some volatility. He probably did not encourage clients to lever into PM's in 2001 or 2002 or possibly even today - too risky according to his training.
He is not anticipating the Black Swan event that we will be swallowed by within a short period of time ranging from 6 - 24 months. Perhaps I misjudge him, though I think his recommendations bear my opinion out.
The bottom line is performance. Last year the S&P500 returned about 6%, the NASDAQ about 10%, the Dow around 9%. Inflation, as measured by M3 plus Shadowstats.com who calculates it based on Fed data that is now withheld from us, runs around 11%. Take away taxes also, and everyone invested with the herd lost about 5% of their money if not more.
Through some luck, long range planning, and a steady hand on the wheel, my portfolios returned from a low of 15% to a high of 37%. All while remaining risk averse.
For those willing to step from the make believe world of electronic digits and fiat currency, into the world of real metals, real land, and real values, the leap will be rewarded beyond your imagination.
While I could be wrong, that is where my money and efforts are invested."
Gold and silver are great, but not all there is in the investment universe.
"First, cutting to the chase, my top picks for investments:
1. Energy - Nat. gas, small/mid tier Oil producers and services, Uranium plays.
2. PM's mining co's- Jr. producers that are growing reserves and will be bought out by the majors.
3. Equatorial Ag land.
4. Large Cap infrastructure companies - GE, Bechtel, Halliburton (politically and morally not appealing but a strong business nonetheless), etc.
5. Physical bullion and sovereign coins held allocated offshore if possible.
Now the discussion and philosophy behind my recommendations, along with some comments regarding Josh and Jim's line of reasoning.
1. Currency values are relative to each other these days along with gold. Rather than supply and demand driving the "value" of a fiat currency, (they are all valueless as Fiat) the difference in interest rates between countries levers one currency higher or lower than another depending of course on the underlying fundamentals of the issuing countries economy. High interest rates attract capital and raise the value of a currency eventually. Low interest rates have the opposite effect. Underlying all that is the rate of money and credit growth compared to the growth of good and services being produced, otherwise known as inflation. Sadly, the whole planet is inflating at near double digit rates - including the Euro, GBP, RNB, Yen, etc. The strongest currencies will be resource rich countries - Canada, Australia, etc.
All currencies are headed down relative to the ultimate currency - Gold. You can hop from one dropping currency to another, but eventually, gold will be the final stop. Since we have a gov't out of control, they could make gold illegal to own or trade or attempt to lock the price. Unlikely, but a consideration.
2. Foreign bonds can be a good currency play and I have enjoyed the returns for a while. One of the best is Loomis International Bond fund. I do not favor bonds and #3 explains why.
3. Even a ragingly successful investment in the stock or bond markets of the world has one critical weakness. Politicians control the worth of the currency the gains are denominated in. Zimbabwe's stock market has rocketed while the currency has depreciated even faster, leaving a net negative return. In my opinion, the considered course of action allows that the dollar may disappear within 3-5 years, leaving all investments open to any revaluation the politicos choose to assign. $1000 USD may become 1 Amero. You then have rescaled the investment into nonsense. So that leaves moving from the ether world of digital investments of paper stocks and bonds, into real valuables of gold, silver, oil, productive agricultural land, and commodities of all stripes.
Jim, the C.F.A., probably expects tomorrow to be pretty much like to day with some volatility. He probably did not encourage clients to lever into PM's in 2001 or 2002 or possibly even today - too risky according to his training.
He is not anticipating the Black Swan event that we will be swallowed by within a short period of time ranging from 6 - 24 months. Perhaps I misjudge him, though I think his recommendations bear my opinion out.
The bottom line is performance. Last year the S&P500 returned about 6%, the NASDAQ about 10%, the Dow around 9%. Inflation, as measured by M3 plus Shadowstats.com who calculates it based on Fed data that is now withheld from us, runs around 11%. Take away taxes also, and everyone invested with the herd lost about 5% of their money if not more.
Through some luck, long range planning, and a steady hand on the wheel, my portfolios returned from a low of 15% to a high of 37%. All while remaining risk averse.
For those willing to step from the make believe world of electronic digits and fiat currency, into the world of real metals, real land, and real values, the leap will be rewarded beyond your imagination.
While I could be wrong, that is where my money and efforts are invested."
Gold and silver are great, but not all there is in the investment universe.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)